In the long run, nearly all current jobs will disappear, so we need fairly radical policy changes to get ready for a very different future economy, according to Stuart Russell, a computer scientist at UC Berkeley, an adjunct professor of neurological surgery at UC San Francisco, and the author of the upcoming book “Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control.”
“One fast developing vision is that of an economy where significantly fewer people work because employment is unneeded,” Russell says in his book.
Depending on whether and how much you (and/or society) believe people should have to work, as well as how society plans to value human labor, it is either a very terrifying or tantalizing idea.
Manufacturing, contact centers, and truck driving will all experience declines in employment, while construction, health care, and home care will see increases.
MIT Technology Review made an effort to keep track of all the many reports on how automation will affect the workforce. They are in great numbers. And they provide a variety of alarming suggestions, ranging from a small amount of labour relocation to a complete redesign.
A McKinsey Global Institute analysis examines how vulnerable to automation certain professions could be and concludes that hundreds of millions of people globally will need to find new employment or acquire new skills. As CNN discovered at auto facilities like the one that shuttered in Lordstown, Ohio, learning new skills can be harder than it seems.
More robots means more inequality
Almost everyone who has given this any serious thought has stated that more inequality is likely to result from increased automation.
Businesses have undoubtedly become more productive, but salaries for employees have not kept up with this growth.
According to McKinsey, the majority of employment growth in the United States and other advanced countries will be in professions that are now at the top of the pay scale. While many middle-class jobs would see significant employment decreases, certain low-wage occupations, including nursing and teaching assistants, will see employment growth.
According to a research from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, dealing with growing inequality and guaranteeing adequate (re-)training, particularly for less skilled employees, are the anticipated challenges for the future.
Insurgent nonpolitician Andrew Yang, a Democratic presidential candidate, has centered his campaign on finding a solution to this issue. More than exporting to China, Yang attributes the collapse of American manufacturing to job automation, and she makes a clear connection between Donald Trump’s ascent and that industry’s decline.
Yang recently told The Atlantic, “We need to wake people awake.” “This is the reality of why Donald Trump is our President today,” said a spokesperson, “because we have already destroyed millions of American jobs and people feel like they have lost a route ahead.”
Should everyone receive government compensation if automation eliminates jobs?
Yang proposes a solution that involves giving every American, regardless of need, a $1,000 monthly stipend, which he refers to as a “freedom dividend.” He contends that it would reduce racial and economic inequalities and allow individuals to choose careers that benefit the neighborhood.
It’s an old concept. Early in the 1970s, as part of the fight against poverty, Congress and President Richard Nixon came dangerously close to passing a similar idea. The concept of a universal basic income, however, suddenly seems about as futuristic as the next “Terminator” movie (yep, they’re developing another one) that will be released this year, following decades of the GOP distancing itself from social programs.
In that Atlantic interview, Yang stated that “ninety-four percent of the new jobs created in the US at this time are gig, temporary, or contractor jobs, and we still just pretend it’s the 1970s, where it’s like, “You’re going to work for a company, you’re going to get benefits, you’re going to be able to retire, even though we’ve totally eviscerated any retirement benefits, but somehow you’re going to retire, it’s going Young people look up at this and say, “This doesn’t seem to work,” and we say, “Oh, it’s okay.” It’s not okay. We do need to mature.
He singles out truck driving as a field that is crucial to the US economy right now but might. Truck driving, as noble the job may be, may not be everyone’s ultimate goal in life. In this scenario, people would be forced to perform tasks that robots would not want to undertake, which is already the case.
What does a 21st century economy look like in a way that serves our interests and not the capital efficiency machine? he asks. “When you accept these circumstances, that we’re going to be competing against technologies that have a marginal cost of near zero, then quickly you have to say OK, then, how are we going to start valuing our time?” This is how he, as well as many liberal economists and businessmen like Elon Musk, came up with the concept of a basic income.
At a CNN town hall this year, Yang said that joining unions and organizing as employees is insufficient to secure employment.
He remarked, “I don’t think we have the time to reinvent the workforce in that way. “We should begin providing value to Americans directly.”
A population able to live off a basic income without employment would ultimately change how society operates as a whole.
According to Russell, “for some, universal basic income (UBI) symbolizes a version of paradise. For others, it signifies an admission of failure — an declaration that the majority of people will have nothing of economic worth to give to society. They can be housed and nourished, primarily by machines, but otherwise left to fend for themselves.
Yang is more concerned with the imminent danger that automation, in his opinion, poses to American jobs. Politicians aren’t discussing it honestly because they are so preoccupied with being upbeat.
You’re a politician, therefore your incentives are to say things like “We can do this, we can do that, we can do the other thing,” but in the background society is deteriorating.
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